[mou] Northern Bobwhites

[Jeff Price]

I haven't been following this thread much but did read
Phil Chu's comments.  I responded to Phil but decided
to share some of my comments with the group as well.

I checked my climate models for Northern Bobwhite. 
The current (as of late 1980s) climate model shows the
climate in northern Iowa, in general, to be marginal
(40% probability of occurrence) for Northern Bobwhite
with small pockets of potentially suitable climate
extending into part of MN (including the approximate
area the birds were seen).  

The models also project that, over time, the climate
over the entire state of MN would become suitable for
Northern Bobwhite.  Given current amounts of regional
warming then it is POSSIBLE that parts of northern
Iowa and southern MN are now climatically suitable to
support Northern Bobwhite populations.  Incidentally,
in this area at the edge of current climatic
suitability you could reasonably expect the climate to
be suitable in some years and not in others.

Whether these birds have naturally colonized the state
or not is a matter of conjecture.  I'm just pointing
out the possibility of future natural colonizations. 
This is going to make the task of bird record
committees that much harder.

The last time I checked (data through 1996) the center
of range of Northern Bobwhite had not shown any
northward trend.  However, the amount of
warming has increased significantly since then and PDO
and NAO have also both changed state (sign) which
impacts precipitation patterns.  I will be looking at
data through 2002 this fall so will have better
information then.

Jeff Price, Ph.D.
Director of Climate Impact Studies
American Bird Conservancy
Boulder, CO
jtpbirder@yahoo.com, jprice@mho.net
www.abcbirds.org

=====
Jeff Price
Boulder, CO
jtpbirder@yahoo.com

__________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software
http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com