[mou] No potholes, no ducks

[Steve Foss]

"That would force ducks eastward and out of the 
state's crucial pothole wetlands, which produce 95 percent
of the ducks  in the continental 
United States."

Since when do South Dakota potholes produce 95 percent of
the ducks in the continental U.S.?

Sorry, folks, but when I see a statistic like that, it
casts doubt on the whole story, and does no good for the
credibility of those who believe human-caused global
warming threatens life on the planet.

Steve

--- Jim Williams <two-jays@att.net> wrote:

> This article is from a few days ago from the Sioux Falls
> ARGUS LEADER,
> South Dakota's largest newspaper. It was sent to me by
> Paul Baicich, a 
> friend in Maryland.
> South Dakota won't be the only place this happens, not
> that Minnesota 
> has much duck habitat left.
> Jim Williams
> Wayzata, Minnesota
> 
> Global warming may threaten ducks
> South Dakota's wetlands could evaporate with climate
> change
> 
> BEN SHOUSE
> bshouse@argusleader.com
> 
> 2 July 05
> 
>     BROOKINGS - Hunters and environmentalists have forged
> a tentative
> alliance to conserve wildlife habitat in recent years,
> but new studies 
> are
> nudging that alliance toward a more controversial issue:
> global warming.
> 
>     Most people know little about the uncertain business
> of forecasting
> climate change. But on Friday, a group of hunters,
> biologists and 
> officials
> gathered here to tour local wetlands and point out the
> connection 
> between
> duck hunting and predictions of rising temperatures.
> 
>     New research from South Dakota State University and a
> new 
> conservation
> report suggest that warming could make duck habitat
> literally evaporate.
> That would force ducks eastward and out of the state's
> crucial pothole
> wetlands, which produce 95 percent of the ducks in the
> continental 
> United
> States.
> 
>     "No water, no ducks, no hunting," said Land Tawney of
> the National
> Wildlife Federation, by way of connecting the dots.The
> Montana-based
> conservation group released a report this week called
> "The Waterfowler's
> Guide to Global Warming."
> 
>     The guide, and the issue of warming in general, poses
> a dilemma for
> conservationists of all political stripes: A coalition of
> hunters and
> environmentalists could prove a decisive voice on the
> issue, but the
> controversy surrounding it also could jeopardize their
> unity.
> 
>     The fate of North American waterfowl and its habitat
> lately has 
> served
> as common ground for hunters and environmentalists. In
> 2003, for 
> example,
> duck hunters prodded the Bush administration to conserve
> more wetlands. 
> And
> in April, about 5,000 hunters and conservationists came
> together on the
> Minnesota capitol mall for the Ducks, Wetlands and Clean
> Water rally.
> 
>     Tony Dean is one prominent member of what might be
> called this
> green-orange coalition. The outdoor TV host from Pierre
> wrote the 
> forward
> to the NWF report, taking a stand against some of his
> fellow 
> Republicans'
> views on global warming.
> 
>     "Carried to the worst potential scenario, it could
> surpass even
> agricultural drainage, and essentially end waterfowl
> hunting," he wrote.
> 
>     "What we're trying to do here is create a middle
> ground between the
> Chicken Little crowd on the extreme left and the 'never
> react to 
> something
> unless it hits you on the head' of the right," he said
> Friday. But he 
> said
> he does not know how readily hunters will embrace the
> issue.
> 
>     "Sportsmen are notoriously slow to react, and they
> really have to 
> lose
> something before they tend to react."
> 
>     According to scientists, the first thing they'll lose
> could be 
> wetlands.
> 
>     Shallow, seasonal ponds and sloughs are indispensible
> habitat for 
> ducks
> and a larder of insects and other tiny critters that
> ducklings need.
> Farmers have drained more than 90 percent of the wetlands
> in western 
> Iowa
> and Minnesota, said Carl Madsen, a retired U.S. Fish and
> Wildlife 
> Service
> official.
> 
>     Drainage has affected only about one-third of South
> Dakota's  
> wetlands.
> But Carter Johnson, a professor of ecology at South
> Dakota State
> University, said climate change could finish the job.
> 
>     Long-term data has documented rising air and ocean
> temperatures, and 
> a
> large body of research links it with a concurrent rise in
> carbon dioxide
> from human industrial activity. Various studies predict
> that will lead 
> to
> an increase of anywhere from 2 to 6 degrees Celsius in
> the next 50 to 
> 100
> years.
> 
>     An average warming of 3 degrees Celsius - which is
> 5.4 Fahrenheit -
> would accelerate evaporation, lowering water levels in
> most wetlands,
> according to forthcoming research by Johnson and
> colleague Bruce 
> Millett.
> 
>     That would reduce the value of most South Dakota
> wetlands for ducks,
> pushing them eastward and driving their populations well
> below current
> levels, Millett says. Previous research said warming
> could shrink 
> crucial
> pothole wetlands by 90 percent and duck populations by 70
> percent.
> 
>     A 3-degree warming would clearly cause other major
> problems, such as 
> a
> rise in sea levels of perhaps three feet and major shifts
> in 
> agriculture,
> Johnson said. But a catastrophic loss of wetlands could
> be one of the 
> most
> noticeable and irrevocable changes in the region, he
> said.
> 
>     And it would have implications far beyond South
> Dakota.
> 
>     The "prairie pothole region" of the Dakotas and
> Montana produce 95
> percent of the ducks born in the continental United
> States, Tawney said.
> Loss of wetlands here would rob the avid duck hunters of
> Arkansas and
> Louisiana of their game.
> 
>     Those predictions, as with all forecasts about global
> warming, are 
> based
> on computer simulations. Scientists must resort to these
> models because 
> the
> Earth's atmosphere and oceans are complex beyond human
> understanding,
> Johnson said.
> 
>     Computer models might raise public suspicion, but he
> said scientists
> have seen their predictions verified by real climate
> data.
> 
>     "The uncertainty is not that it's going to get warmer
> or not, but how
> much warmer and where," he said.
> 
>     Getting that message to the public can be difficult,
> but Johnson 
> says he
> sees progress. His duck-hunting buddies, for example,
> come from across 
> the
> political spectrum, and until about five years ago, he
> never would have
> talked about his research while sitting in a duck blind.
> 
>     But now, he says, "it's getting more traction."
> 
>     "It's getting more visible. I think the evidence is
> more clear," he
> said. "Therefore, I think those discussions are going to
> go on in the
> blinds more than they have in the past."
> 
>     Some duck hunters with less knowledge of climate
> science are 
> beginning
> to agree.
> 
>     Todd Heidelbauer, 32, of Sioux Falls says he noticed
> a drop in the
> quality of duck hunting during the recent drought. He
> says it makes 
> sense
> that a drier climate could lead to a more permanent
> decline.
> 
>     "It makes me want to work even harder with the
> conservation
> organizations to buy up more land for public use and
> place
> water-conservation structures on the land," he said.
> 
>     Pat Gross of Vermillion, a duck hunter and former
> U.S. Department of
> Agriculture employee, said climate change is real, and he
> fears for 
> what it
> will mean for wildlife. But he attended the Minnesota
> duck rally at the
> Capitol in April and was encouraged by the hunters and
> conservationists 
> who
> want to save duck habitat.
> 
>     "There was some unprecedented hand holding between
> organizations that
> typically don't always agree," he said. "I tend to
> believe that there is
> kind of a new sense of understanding emerging, and people
> are willing to
> abandon some of their philosophical commitments to do the
> right thing 
> for
> natural resources."
> 
> Russel A. Daniels / Argus Leader
> 
> 
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