[mou] No potholes, no ducks

[Jim Williams]

This article is from a few days ago from the Sioux Falls ARGUS LEADER,
South Dakota's largest newspaper. It was sent to me by Paul Baicich, a 
friend in Maryland.
South Dakota won't be the only place this happens, not that Minnesota 
has much duck habitat left.
Jim Williams
Wayzata, Minnesota

Global warming may threaten ducks
South Dakota's wetlands could evaporate with climate change

BEN SHOUSE
bshouse@argusleader.com

2 July 05

    BROOKINGS - Hunters and environmentalists have forged a tentative
alliance to conserve wildlife habitat in recent years, but new studies 
are
nudging that alliance toward a more controversial issue: global warming.

    Most people know little about the uncertain business of forecasting
climate change. But on Friday, a group of hunters, biologists and 
officials
gathered here to tour local wetlands and point out the connection 
between
duck hunting and predictions of rising temperatures.

    New research from South Dakota State University and a new 
conservation
report suggest that warming could make duck habitat literally evaporate.
That would force ducks eastward and out of the state's crucial pothole
wetlands, which produce 95 percent of the ducks in the continental 
United
States.

    "No water, no ducks, no hunting," said Land Tawney of the National
Wildlife Federation, by way of connecting the dots.The Montana-based
conservation group released a report this week called "The Waterfowler's
Guide to Global Warming."

    The guide, and the issue of warming in general, poses a dilemma for
conservationists of all political stripes: A coalition of hunters and
environmentalists could prove a decisive voice on the issue, but the
controversy surrounding it also could jeopardize their unity.

    The fate of North American waterfowl and its habitat lately has 
served
as common ground for hunters and environmentalists. In 2003, for 
example,
duck hunters prodded the Bush administration to conserve more wetlands. 
And
in April, about 5,000 hunters and conservationists came together on the
Minnesota capitol mall for the Ducks, Wetlands and Clean Water rally.

    Tony Dean is one prominent member of what might be called this
green-orange coalition. The outdoor TV host from Pierre wrote the 
forward
to the NWF report, taking a stand against some of his fellow 
Republicans'
views on global warming.

    "Carried to the worst potential scenario, it could surpass even
agricultural drainage, and essentially end waterfowl hunting," he wrote.

    "What we're trying to do here is create a middle ground between the
Chicken Little crowd on the extreme left and the 'never react to 
something
unless it hits you on the head' of the right," he said Friday. But he 
said
he does not know how readily hunters will embrace the issue.

    "Sportsmen are notoriously slow to react, and they really have to 
lose
something before they tend to react."

    According to scientists, the first thing they'll lose could be 
wetlands.

    Shallow, seasonal ponds and sloughs are indispensible habitat for 
ducks
and a larder of insects and other tiny critters that ducklings need.
Farmers have drained more than 90 percent of the wetlands in western 
Iowa
and Minnesota, said Carl Madsen, a retired U.S. Fish and Wildlife 
Service
official.

    Drainage has affected only about one-third of South Dakota's  
wetlands.
But Carter Johnson, a professor of ecology at South Dakota State
University, said climate change could finish the job.

    Long-term data has documented rising air and ocean temperatures, and 
a
large body of research links it with a concurrent rise in carbon dioxide
from human industrial activity. Various studies predict that will lead 
to
an increase of anywhere from 2 to 6 degrees Celsius in the next 50 to 
100
years.

    An average warming of 3 degrees Celsius - which is 5.4 Fahrenheit -
would accelerate evaporation, lowering water levels in most wetlands,
according to forthcoming research by Johnson and colleague Bruce 
Millett.

    That would reduce the value of most South Dakota wetlands for ducks,
pushing them eastward and driving their populations well below current
levels, Millett says. Previous research said warming could shrink 
crucial
pothole wetlands by 90 percent and duck populations by 70 percent.

    A 3-degree warming would clearly cause other major problems, such as 
a
rise in sea levels of perhaps three feet and major shifts in 
agriculture,
Johnson said. But a catastrophic loss of wetlands could be one of the 
most
noticeable and irrevocable changes in the region, he said.

    And it would have implications far beyond South Dakota.

    The "prairie pothole region" of the Dakotas and Montana produce 95
percent of the ducks born in the continental United States, Tawney said.
Loss of wetlands here would rob the avid duck hunters of Arkansas and
Louisiana of their game.

    Those predictions, as with all forecasts about global warming, are 
based
on computer simulations. Scientists must resort to these models because 
the
Earth's atmosphere and oceans are complex beyond human understanding,
Johnson said.

    Computer models might raise public suspicion, but he said scientists
have seen their predictions verified by real climate data.

    "The uncertainty is not that it's going to get warmer or not, but how
much warmer and where," he said.

    Getting that message to the public can be difficult, but Johnson 
says he
sees progress. His duck-hunting buddies, for example, come from across 
the
political spectrum, and until about five years ago, he never would have
talked about his research while sitting in a duck blind.

    But now, he says, "it's getting more traction."

    "It's getting more visible. I think the evidence is more clear," he
said. "Therefore, I think those discussions are going to go on in the
blinds more than they have in the past."

    Some duck hunters with less knowledge of climate science are 
beginning
to agree.

    Todd Heidelbauer, 32, of Sioux Falls says he noticed a drop in the
quality of duck hunting during the recent drought. He says it makes 
sense
that a drier climate could lead to a more permanent decline.

    "It makes me want to work even harder with the conservation
organizations to buy up more land for public use and place
water-conservation structures on the land," he said.

    Pat Gross of Vermillion, a duck hunter and former U.S. Department of
Agriculture employee, said climate change is real, and he fears for 
what it
will mean for wildlife. But he attended the Minnesota duck rally at the
Capitol in April and was encouraged by the hunters and conservationists 
who
want to save duck habitat.

    "There was some unprecedented hand holding between organizations that
typically don't always agree," he said. "I tend to believe that there is
kind of a new sense of understanding emerging, and people are willing to
abandon some of their philosophical commitments to do the right thing 
for
natural resources."

Russel A. Daniels / Argus Leader